Kamran Bokhari
Geopolitical Futures, Apr. 17, 2025
“Once Khamenei is out of the picture, the military – itself divided between the ideological Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the more professional Artesh (regular armed forces) – will likely replace the clergy as the regime’s core.”
The Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran is about much more than nuclear nonproliferation. Whatever happens will have massive implications for Tehran at a time when the regime is on the verge of a critical leadership transition. In many ways, the U.S.-Iran talks are much more difficult than the efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Regardless of their outcome, U.S.-Iran negotiations will reshape the Middle East and reverberate across Eurasia.
On April 15, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, called on social media for Iran to eliminate its nuclear enrichment program. A day earlier, following a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister in Oman, he had told Fox News that the administration sought only limits on Iran’s enrichment capabilities, not full dismantlement. This rhetorical shift came after a contentious White House meeting that included Witkoff, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, national security adviser Mike Waltz and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. According to an Axios report, Vance, Hegseth and Witkoff favor compromise to secure a deal, while Rubio and Waltz demand full dismantlement.
The disagreement within the Trump White House reflects deeper strategic tensions. For one thing, a deal that for now restricts enrichment would not eliminate the risk of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold over time. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors can do only so much to monitor the activities of a regime determined to weaponize nuclear technology. Proposals for U.S. inspectors are hardly practical given the nearly half a century of hostility between the two nations….SOURCE