Ron Ben Yishai
Ynet News, Dec. 5, 2024
“Israel is concerned about these militias and the Hezbollah forces entering Syria, as they could signify the beginning of a long-term Iranian military presence in the country through its proxies.”
The rapid southward advance of Sunni jihadist rebels and the capture of the city of Hama appear to have prompted the urgent meeting convened Thursday evening by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with top security officials. The rebels’ surprise offensive, launched almost immediately after the Lebanon cease-fire took effect, poses a series of potential threats but also offers opportunities for Israel. In any case, the situation requires close monitoring.
The most pressing threats are as follows: First, there is a risk that weapons systems, especially missiles and possibly chemical weapons located in northern and central Syria, could fall into rebel hands within days, or even hours. It is possible that some of these are already under jihadist control. Aleppo, along with the surrounding military bases—particularly the military-industrial complex in the town of al-Safira southeast of Aleppo—represents a significant potential threat.
This industrial complex produces missiles and rockets using Iranian expertise, including precision-guided missiles. It also has the capacity to manufacture chemical weapons, and there may be small quantities of such weapons stored there by Bashar al-Assad’s regime as a contingency measure. This likely explains reports, according to foreign sources, of Israeli airstrikes in recent days, including Tuesday night into Wednesday, targeting the complex as well as Syrian military weapons depots north of Damascus, which the rebels are rapidly approaching.
It can be assumed that Israel prefers to destroy these threats to prevent conventional and unconventional weaponry from falling into jihadist hands, even if these groups are Sunni and fierce enemies of Hezbollah and Iran.
The second threat stems directly from the Syrian regime army’s weakness and Russia’s diminished ability to defend Assad’s regime, as it did in 2015.
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