Jonathan Spyer
The Spectator, Sept. 17, 2024
“The return of residents to their northern border communities has now been defined as a war aim by Israel. Logic leads inexorably to the conclusion that only a major rearrangement of the situation north of the frontier — i.e. pushing Hezbollah’s forces away from the border line — can achieve this goal.”
The killing of twelve people, including several Hezbollah members, and the wounding of thousands more when 5,000 pagers simultaneously exploded in Lebanon yesterday represents an obvious tactical triumph for Israel (or whoever carried it out). The sight of members of the Iran-supported Shia Islamist group suddenly collapsing in agony while performing mundane daily tasks was met with great amusement by the movement’s many enemies across the region. Displaying the somewhat gleeful and malicious humor which characterizes all sides in the Levant, a variety of memes mocking the hapless victims of the grim beeper soon proliferated.
Hilarity aside, the operation displays the extent to which Hezbollah has been thoroughly penetrated by its opposite number. The organization will no doubt now undertake a thorough review of its security arrangements. It will be aware that the capabilities on display this week (and in the killings of high profile group officials such as Fuad Shukr and Mohammed Qassem al-Shaer over the past few months) can be activated in ways far more kinetic than have yet been witnessed.
Israel’s capabilities have not enabled Jerusalem to decisively alter the strategic picture
This episode has exposed Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities, and will bring reassurance to Israelis regarding the continued tactical flair and capacities of their security structures. Nevertheless, it does not alter the essential elements of the picture regarding Israel’s ongoing confrontation with Hezbollah on its northern border. A core and clearly established element of this picture, after all, is that Israel consistently displays tactical capacities superior to its Iran-backed enemy. But these capacities, up to and including the latest demonstration, have not enabled Jerusalem to decisively alter the strategic picture — which gives less reason for cheer. ….SOURCE
