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Analysis

Divorced From Reality’: As Top Biden Aides Meet MBS, Experts See Near Term Prospects for Israel-Saudi Normalization, and a US Saudi Security Pact, As Unlikely


Laura Rozen
Diplomatic by Laura Rozen, July 28, 2023

I have the sense that there’s unrealistic expectations on both sides. And the reason for that is that this process right now, and where we are in the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and the Saudis, is driven by narrow political interests and agendas and timelines rather than the political reality on the ground.”
 
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, NSC Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and White House energy advisor Amos Hochstein traveled to Saudi Arabia to consult with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other officials on Thursday (July 27).

The Biden aides and Saudi officials met to “discuss initiatives to advance a common vision for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world,” the NSC said.

“Certainly normalization is one of those things that we continue to support between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” NSC spokesman John Kirby told journalists on a virtual gaggle Friday (July 28). “It’s one of the things that we continue to talk to both of them about, and it’s certainly one that we want to see….additional progress on.”

“Now what that looks like,… it’s just too soon to know,” Kirby continued. “We’ll see what the outcomes are.”

The New York Times’ Tom Friedman, who first reported the visit, portrayed the consultations as part of U.S. efforts to explore prospects for advancing a deal to normalize Israel-Saudi relations under which Washington might extend Riyadh a treaty security guarantee.

“The president still has not made up his mind whether to proceed, but he gave a green light for his team to probe with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon of Saudi Arabia to see if some kind of deal is possible and at what price,” Friedman wrote. “The Saudis are seeking…a NATO-level mutual security treaty that would enjoin the United States to come to Saudi Arabia’s defense if it is attacked (most likely by Iran); a civilian nuclear program, monitored by the United States; and the ability to purchase more advanced U.S. weapons.”

… [To read the full article, click here]

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