Mordechai Kedar
JNS, Apr. 13, 2023
“The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of Israel’s reserves will take several days and will at best be partial due to the chaos that will ensue from the initial attack.”
I hesitated quite a bit about whether to publish this piece because of the panic it might cause in Israel. However, in the Middle East environment and particularly in Iraq, these things are known and serve as a topic of open discussion, so it is unthinkable that the Israeli public should not be aware of them as well, especially since they concern Israelis much more than the citizens of Iraq.
A source I’ve known for years—an expatriate from the Middle East, a supporter of Israel, who lives in Europe and is in continuous contact with people in Iran and Iraq—conveyed to me their assessment that Iran plans to launch a combined attack on Israel in the foreseeable future that will include all the forces at its disposal in several Arab countries:
In Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hamas, with many thousands of missiles, some of them precision-guided, and UAVs.
In Syria: Seventeen armed and ready combat units (“militias”): Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa’, Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fadhl Brigade, ‘Asaa’b Ahl al-Haq, Khorasani Brigade and more. Iran has transferred a very large number of missiles and UAVs to Syria, and these are ready to be launched.
In Iraq: Dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.
In Yemen: The Houthis, who have Iranian long-range missiles and UAVs capable of reaching Israel.
In Gaza: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Israeli Air Force bases.
It is likely that Iran will not launch anything directly from its own territory, so as not to expose itself to retaliation.
So much for the assessment that came to me from Iraq.
What follows is my interpretation:
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