Dylan Kassin and David Pollock
Washington Institute, July 15, 2022
“It is striking that of all the Arab populations polled in the past few months, Palestinians are in fact the least likely to express a negative viewpoint of the Abraham Accords.”
The wave of Arab countries officially normalizing relations with Israel over the past several years stands in contrast with a growing lack of public support for the Abraham Accords in the Gulf. New public opinion polling from the Washington Institute (TWI) demonstrates that the percentage of those who view them favorably in Saudi Arabia (KSA), Bahrain, and the UAE has dropped over the past year to a minority view. However, this data also indicates a countercurrent of openness to allowing business and social ties with Israelis in some parts of the Gulf, especially in comparison to their peers in Egypt, Kuwait, and the Levant. As Biden will purportedly push for the Saudi Kingdom to take steps to normalize ties with Israel during his visit, it is a potentially optimistic sign for the administration that 40 percent of Saudis now agree that informal business or sports ties with Israelis should be allowed.
The official publicity surrounding the Abraham Accords—along with more recent signaling of Saudi willingness to make certain agreements with Israel—has served both as a sign to Tehran of the increased fortitude of the “anti-Iranian” coalition and to Washington of the willingness of Arab allies to “play ball” with the American policy agenda. Nevertheless, TWI polling from March 2022 demonstrates that more than two thirds of citizens in Bahrain, KSA, and UAE view the Abraham Accords unfavorably less than two years out.
Current attitudes contrast with the relative optimism exhibited by a significant percentage of Emiratis, Bahrainis, Saudis, and even some Egyptians in the months after the announcement of the Abraham Accords. When first polled in November 2020, attitudes in the UAE and Bahrain were effectively split as to whether they saw the agreement in a positive or negative light. Apart from the people of the signatory countries, 40 percent of Saudis and Qataris then also supported the Accords. Now, the percentage of those who see the agreement in a positive light hover between 19% to 25% in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE.
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