Matthew Smith
Oilprice.com, Dec. 8, 2021
“U.S. sanctions have a long history of failing to initiate regime change unless they are accompanied by other forms of overt pressure including military action.”
Two decades of malfeasance and corruption coupled with sharply weaker crude oil prices and ever stricter U.S. sanctions have precipitated the worst modern economic collapse outside of war in Venezuela. The crisis-riven Latin American country, which was once considered the wealthiest and most stable democracy in its region, is on the verge of collapse. While U.S. policymakers continue to believe that tough sanctions will bring the autocratic Maduro government to its knees and trigger regime change there are increasing signs that they are failing and have in fact strengthened his position. This is supported by events that have occurred since sanctions were ratcheted up by the Obama administration in 2015 with Venezuela described as an ” unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”. Unexpectedly former President Trump’s policy of maximum pressure, which saw his administration enact the harshest sanctions ever against Venezuela cutting the country off from international energy markets, has failed. Even the near-collapse of Venezuela’s economy due to harsh U.S. sanctions and growing lawlessness in the stricken Latin American country has done little if anything to erode Maduro’s grip on power.
The latest event highlighting the strength of Maduro’s grip on power has become since that declaration is the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela’s recent sweeping victory in regional elections. Coalition led by the party, which is controlled by Maduro, won 20 of the 23 governorships available and the mayoralty of Caracas. This comes after Maduro was able to secure control of Venezuela’s National Assembly, winning 256 of the body’s 277 seats during the December 2020 elections. That success essentially destroyed Washington’s recognized interim President Juan Guaido’s legitimacy because he lost not only his leadership of the lawmaking body but his seat. As a result, the European Union ceased recognizing Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate interim president, instead bestowing the title of privileged interlocutor.
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