Mark Mellman
The Hill, Oct. 25, 2023
“Given a choice among three options for “ending the occupation and building an independent state,” 21 percent prefer “negotiations,” 22 percent “peaceful popular resistance” and 52 percent select “armed conflict.”
It’s frankly not the central issue, but debate has swirled around whether Gazans, and Palestinians more broadly, support Hamas.
Some American officials have clearly concluded that “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.” Are they correct or not?
Hamas’s savage butchery and Israel’s attack on Hamas may have altered the answer. We can’t know that, as current circumstances clearly preclude polling. However, an election and a series of polls supply some useful guidance. Operating from an anemic understanding of democracy, the George W. Bush administration pressed the Palestinians to hold legislative elections in their territories in 2006.
The result: Hamas garnered less than a majority but eked out a narrow 3-point win over Fatah, the party of Yasser Arafat and (now Palestinian Authority President) Mahmoud Abbas— 44 percent-41 percent. That 44 percent of the total popular vote was sufficient to yield Hamas control of 56 percent of the legislative seats.
Every poll inaccurately predicted a Fatah victory. Of course, that was long ago, and neither Hamas, which controls Gaza, nor Fatah, which controls the West Bank (the Palestinian Authority), have permitted elections since, so we don’t have that tool to assess support, but we do have a number of polls. Until the summer of 2021, Palestinian pollsters found Fatah receiving less than a majority in potential legislative elections but enjoying a consistent, if sometimes narrow, lead over Hamas. Since then, the picture has grown murkier, with mostly narrow leads shifting back and forth. On average, polls in 2022 and 2023 give Fatah 35 percent support and 34 percent for Hamas. Considering just this year’s polls generates a half point lead for Hamas.
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