Table of Contents:
What’s Fuelling Israel’s Settlement Push?: Jonathan Tobin, National Review, May 20, 2020
Applying Israeli Sovereignty to Parts of Judea and Samaria According to the U.S. Peace Plan – Implications: Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, JCPA, May 21, 2020
Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan: Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar, JISS, May 31, 2020
Sovereignty over the Jordan Valley is Key to Israel’s Security: Amir Avivi, The Hill, May 30, 2020
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What’s Fuelling Israel’s Settlement Push?
Jonathan Tobin
National Review, May 20, 2020
After three and a half years of close cooperation between the governments of Israel and the United States, the Jewish state is hoping for a least one more gesture of support from President Donald Trump. But the question of whether Trump will give Israel a green light to annex West Bank Jewish settlements in the coming months has stirred a spirited debate within the administration.
At stake is not merely the technical question of whether Israeli law will be extended into West Bank territory, which Israel considers disputed rather than occupied. Rather, it is whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government can take advantage of what might be the last months of an administration that has not merely been supportive but also adopted what the Israelis consider to be a far more realistic attitude toward the conflict with the Palestinians than any of its predecessors.
But in launching an all-out lobbying campaign seeking to persuade the administration to approve the measure, the Israelis are presented with a difficult task. They must avoid statements that make it look like they think Trump will lose in November and possibly alienate the hypersensitive president. At the same time, they must also not lose what they think is a historic opportunity that may slip away should former vice president Joe Biden become the next president. Complicating the discussion are the questions of whether Israel’s acting now will undermine Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” plan for solving the conflict with the Palestinians, and whether annexation will lead to a new round of violence and destabilize the regime of Jordan’s King Abdullah.
Israelis argue that “annexation” is not the right term to describe what they are seeking, since no other country has possessed internationally recognized sovereignty in the West Bank since the British Mandate for Palestine expired in 1948. There has never been an independent Palestinian Arab entity there. Jordan’s occupation of the area from 1948 to 1967 was illegal, recognized only by Britain and Pakistan. Israel claims the right of Jews to live and build there is based on the 1920 San Remo Agreement and the 1922 League of Nations Mandate. Since the land doesn’t belong to anyone else legally, Israel believes it has merely extended its law into disputed territory that is part of the ancient Jewish homeland.
Palestinians and most of the international community disagree. They claim that all Jewish communities in the West Bank — including those in eastern Jerusalem — constitute an illegal occupation of foreign land. Up until Trump, the United States generally agreed with that position. Previous U.S. peace plans called for the division of Jerusalem and narrowly delineated the parts of the West Bank that would be retained by Israel, with the Palestinians to be given parts of pre-1967 Israel in exchange. That meant that dozens of Jewish settlements would have to be abandoned along with the sparsely populated Jordan Valley, which Israel considers its security border. Trump’s plan departs from that precedent, allowing all settlements and their several hundred thousand inhabitants to remain in place and for Israel to keep up to 30 percent of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley. But, as they had done with far more generous offers, the Palestinian Authority and its leader Mahmoud Abbas rejected Trump’s plan, refusing to discuss the prospect of negotiations. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Applying Israeli Sovereignty to Parts of Judea and Samaria According to the U.S. Peace Plan – Implications
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser
JCPA, May 21, 2020
Where Do the Americans Stand on Sovereignty?
Around the time of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Jerusalem on May 13, a shift may have occurred in the U.S. administration’s position regarding the conditions and the timing for applying Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria, including the Jordan Valley, that are designated to be under Israeli sovereignty according to the U.S. peace plan. This would involve about half of Area C, that is, about 30 percent of Judea and Samaria, including the Jewish communities and most of the Jordan Valley, including the roads that lead to it.
Until the visit, the Americans said that the decision, including the timing and details of the application of sovereignty, was in Israel’s hands, and that, as U.S. Ambassador David Friedman announced, the United States would support the move if two conditions were met. One was the completion of the work of the joint Israeli-American committee on demarcating the territory in question. The other was a declaration by the Israeli prime minister that he accepts the U.S. peace plan and agrees that sovereignty will be applied within its framework, which requires Israel to refrain from building during the next four years in the rest of Area C that is intended to be part of the future Palestinian state, and that he agrees to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the lands that the plan allots to it, if the Palestinians accept certain conditions.
However, in the wake of the visit, State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus told Israeli journalists, “We really think annexation should be part of a peace process where Palestinians should have a say.” The Palestinians have indeed proclaimed that they reject the American plan, but the United States will keep pressuring them to return to the negotiating table and still hopes that they will. At the same time, the Palestinians were stepping up their threats and eventually declared that they are no longer committed to their agreements with Israel and the United States, including in the security realm, while they keep warning that they will react violently if sovereignty is applied.
Jordan’s King Abdullah warned in an interview to Der Spiegel that Israeli sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria would lead to a “massive conflict” with the kingdom. That, too, drew a moderate and even sympathetic American response. Morgan Ortagus remarked: “The United States has a close relationship with the state of Jordan. We know that it plays a special role in the Middle East, especially their relationship with Israel. The peace treaty between Israel and Jordan is very important to all of us. What we want for both Israel and Jordan is the relationship that is not only strong on the security level, but that’s also strong at the diplomatic level and the economic level.”
She added: “We certainly understand that the king has expressed his concerns today and again that’s why we think it’s important to turn back to President’s Trump’s Vision for Peace and to bring all parties to the table to work toward this peace plan. That’s what we will be working on at the State Department.”
The European opposition to applying sovereignty was also evident in a virtual conference of the European foreign ministers, even though they did not reach an agreement on the wording of a threat to Israel. Even before that, the Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, had come out against the move. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan
Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
JISS, May 31, 2020
The Trump Plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples.” Therefore, the Israeli national unity government should embrace the Trump plan in its entirety, including negotiations towards establishment of a Palestinian state, and at the same time act (in the first stage) to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and strategically significant areas in the Jerusalem envelope, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. An Israeli consensus exists regarding these areas.
Executive Summary
Recommendations
• A first stage extension of Israeli law to parts of Judea and Samaria should focus on the Jordan Valley and areas in the Jerusalem envelope that are important for security reasons, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. Applying Israeli law to these territories, which is a step beyond Israel’s current military control, is crucial. This move will launch implementation of the Trump plan and will convey – both domestically and abroad – Israel’s determination to retain territories that are important to its security, with the support of the US. The application of Israeli law in these areas would also remove from the agenda proposals for security arrangements in the territories that are of very questionable effectiveness, and halt Palestinian encroachment in sensitive security areas of the West Bank (Area C).
• Because the application of Israeli law is part of President Trump’s peace plan, Israel’s national unity government should accept the plan in its entirety, including the requirement to enter negotiations regarding establishment of a Palestinian state in the future. The Trump plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples,” in contradiction to earlier peace paradigms that fed unrealistic Palestinian expectations, and which therefore led to dead ends.
• Israeli policy ought to be grounded in a broad national consensus. Such a consensus exists regarding the Jordan Valley as Israel’s eastern security border and regarding the defense of Jerusalem. A significant portion of the Israeli public is supportive of applying Israeli law to these areas, while making territorial compromises elsewhere. These were the positions held by Yigal Alon and Yitzhak Rabin of the Israel Labor Party in their prime.
• On this basis, Israel should assiduously make diplomatic efforts to diminish anticipated opposition to this Israeli move – first and foremost among US Jews and Democrats, as well as in the international and even the Arab arena. The latter will help mitigate aggressive Palestinian responses. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Sovereignty Over the Jordan Valley is Key to Israel’s Security
Amir Avivi
The Hill, May 30, 2020
When assessing Israel’s core national security interests, applying Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley fits squarely within the list of Israeli needs. Our nation, with its ancient past, must take an equally long view of its future, particularly given the many security challenges that likely await us. Israel must act to solidify its key needs in the fields of security, economy and development, and must not hesitate when doing so.
In just 50 years from now, our population is projected to exceed 20 million people. In order to thrive, and not just survive, we must have a minimally defensible eastern border, located in the Jordan Valley, and it must retain control of the eastern mountain ridge.
Yitzhak Rabin, architect of the Oslo Accords, in the eponymous “Rabin parameters,” included full Israeli security control over Jewish cities in Judea and Samaria/the West Bank, and full freedom of maneuver for Israelis along the main roads of the area, within those parameters. He did so based on the need to protect the large Israeli communities of Judea and Samaria known today as the “Settlement blocs.”
But Israel’s civilian presence in Judea and Samaria extends far beyond those blocs, and retaining control over those additional areas in perpetuity is a puzzle we finally have an opportunity to solve.
The Trump peace plan, with its endorsement of Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, accurately reflects the Rabin parameters. It also calls for a two-state solution and a demilitarized Palestinian state, with Israeli security control over the entire area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, along with a permanent presence in the Jordan Valley.
The surprising alignment between these two plans begets a moment in time not to be missed by Israel. The reasons to proceed with sovereignty go beyond the commonality of Rabin’s and Trump’s visions, however; in ways that ought to temper the panic and pessimism disseminated by those who portray Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley as a portent for catastrophe.
The Trump peace plan was coordinated with Sunni states, Israel and the U.S. administration. That coordination is the result of the Sunni view that an alliance with Israel is an existential imperative in their fight against Iran — something that is of far greater significance to them than the Palestinian-Arab cause.
Economically, the dependence of these states upon economic aid and ties to the U.S. render any frantic statements of what awaits following the application of sovereignty just that — statements. In particular, Jordan, despite its rhetoric, is unlikely to cancel its peace treaty with Israel. It is Israel and the U.S. that stabilize Jordan, not the other way around. There is no Jordanian interest in having a Palestinian military presence on their western border. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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For Further Reference:
New Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz Vows Support for Trump Peace Plan ‘With Everything It Includes’: Benjamin Kerstein, Algemeiner, May 18, 2020 — New Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz vowed on Monday to work toward implementing US President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan “with everything it includes.”
Abbas Threatens to Sever All Agreements with US and Israel: JOL, May 20, 2020 — Palestinians have terminated all agreements with Israel and the US amid Israel’s intention to extend its sovereignty over “the Palestinian lands”, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas stated on Tuesday.
Jordan Warns it will Review Ties with Israel over Annexation: Times of Israel, May 22, 2020 — Jordan threatened Thursday to review its relationship with Israel if the Jewish state goes ahead with controversial plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
Trump’s Peace Plan Will Help Israel — No Matter What the Palestinians Do: Jeremiah Rozman, Algemeiner, Apr. 30, 2020 — Now that Israel finally appears to be on the brink of forming a government, and with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaling confidence that settlement annexation will begin “within months,” it is worth taking a hard look at the framework dubbed “the Deal of the Century,” under which annexation will likely proceed.
Israel’s Control of Judea & Samaria – a Prerequisite for Security: Yoram Ettinger, The Ettinger Report, May 21, 2020 — The mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) – 3000 ft above the Jordan Valley and 2000 ft above Israel’s heavily populated coastal plain – constitute the “Golan Heights” of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, the key north-south transportation artery Highway 6, critical commercial and defense infrastructures and 80% of Israel’s population.
18 Democratic Senators Warn Annexation will Damage, Erode US-Israel Relations: Times of Israel, May 22, 2020 — In a letter to Israel’s leaders, a group of 18 Democratic senators have warned of the detrimental consequences of Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank to the Jewish state’s “bilateral and bipartisan relationship” with the United States.June