Turkey’s Burgeoning Nuclear Ambitions Raise Concerns: Jonathan Spyer, The Jerusalem Post, Nov. 29, 2019
_________________________________________Turkey is trying to Take over the Mediterranean, through Libya
Seth Frantzman
Middle East Forum, Dec. 3, 2019One of the governments in Libya controls only a small percentage of the country and the capital of Tripoli, but in need of Turkish support it signed a bizarre deal with Ankara over who controls the Mediterranean. Turkey says the deal that it signed is historic and that it has “proven its capabilities to the world in a manner that is compatible with international law but also signaled its future intentions in the region.”Greece is outraged, threatening to take the dispute to international bodies and complain to NATO. It has larger ramifications also for Egypt, Cyprus and Israel as Turkey seeks a vast swath of sea to control as an economic zone.Turkey met with Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the Presidential Council of Libya’s Government of the National Accord in Tripoli. Sarraj was in Istanbul, but it is understood that his weak government has been in discussions with Turkey for some time about an agreement that would give Turkey access to an economic zone across the Mediterranean. Turkey’s Daily Sabah says this deal is “mutually beneficial.”
Turkey is seeking regional power not seen since the Ottoman Empire more than 100 years ago.
The real story is buried in the report. Turkey is trying to assert itself across the swath of Iraq, Syria and now all the way to Libya, with its eyes set on having power not seen since the Ottoman Empire more than 100 years ago. The reports claim that Turkey now sees its control of the Mediterranean from the “three-dimensional viewpoint” and this “maximizes the country’s maritime boundaries and shows that Turkey’s border districts of Marmaris, Fethiye and Kas are actually neighbors with Libya’s Derna, Tobruk and Bardiya districts.”
Turkey calls this the “blue motherland,” or “Mavi Vatan” in Turkish. It has launched major naval exercises in the last year to show off its power. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has referred to this “motherland” as the 462,000 square kilometer area from the Black Sea to Aegean. Turkey openly says in its media, which is all pro-government, that it is deploying naval assets as a “show of force” and that it is angered by drilling being conducted by other states. In short, it will begin more drilling and more pushing out its boundaries. Future deals are in the cards.
Turkey’s February 2019 Mavi Vatan (Blue Motherland) naval exercise, stretching from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, was the largest in its history.
The Mediterranean policy is part of increased pressure on Cyprus that Turkey has brought and also Ankara’s view of the Tripoli government of Libya as a key part of its agenda. For instance Fahrettin Altun, the communications director for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tweeted that “security and military cooperation” is a key part of support for one of Libya’s governments.
Libya has been in a civil war since 2011. In the last year the forces of Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by Egypt and the UAE, have been laying siege to Sarraj’s government. The deal Sarraj signed potentially gives Turkey rights to areas off the coast of Libya that the Sarraj government doesn’t even control. Yet the Sarraj government has gone to Turkey as the “UN-backed” government of Libya because even though it controls a minority of the country, it has worked with the UN and tends to receive official discussions from Western powers. Turkey has supplied drones and military vehicles to the Tripoli government. The country is seen as a proxy war between Turkey and Egypt as well as the Gulf countries. Turkey opposes Egypt’s Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and supported the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi, who was pushed out of office in 2013. Libya is “ground zero” for this proxy fight of drones and other hardware. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles — First in Syria, and Now in Libya
Simon Henderson
The Hill, Dec. 16, 2019
When a country’s diplomatic style is confrontational, what do you get? Confrontations. It has become Turkey’s signature style. But winning confrontations, or giving the appearance of doing so, can be a challenge. And Ankara may have been wrong-footed in a swiftly worsening crisis, prompted by a new stage in the Libyan civil war.
Two weeks ago, the new twist in the crisis looked like a fracas based on rival claims to potential offshore reserves of natural gas in the Mediterranean. Ankara and Tripoli signed an agreement delineating a maritime border. Until then, few realized the two countries had such a border — the Greek island of Crete was in the way. But Turkey does not regard islands as having economic exclusivity stretching up to 200 miles beyond territorial waters.
Tripoli now shares this view, even though the administration clutching to power in the Libyan capital controls much less than half of territorial Libya at present, and not even the bit of Mediterranean coastline used to justify the claim.
At the time of this cartographic surprise, some speculated that Turkey wanted to annoy Greece — yet again — in order to claim what it regards as its share of potential lucrative natural gas reserves at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea. Way to the south, Egypt already is an established producer. Israel’s Leviathan field, which comes on stream this month, will mean that that country now is self-sufficient and can export the surplus, initially via Egyptian gas liquefaction plants. Exploration continues off Cyprus, ethnically Greek but an independent country, even though its northern part is a self-declared Turkish entity, unrecognized except by Ankara. Drilling off Lebanon may start early 2020.
Over the weekend, detail emerged on a separate Turkish-Libyan military agreement: Ankara essentially promised to safeguard the government in Tripoli. That may be too late; the internationally recognized Government of National Accord in Libya has been forced back to a defensive line in the outer suburbs of Tripoli. And, according to The Economist, it is having to cope with a new weapon being used by forces helping Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army — well-aimed sniper rifles in the hands of newly recruited Russian mercenaries. Haftar lacks access to Libya’s oil revenues but receives funding and equipment, as well as the occasional air strike, from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
So, after many months of stalemate, we may be watching the final round of the Libyan civil war. On the face of it, Haftar, a Gaddafi general and former CIA asset, should have taken over the government within weeks, but whether he succeeds now is a factor of how quickly the Turkish military can reach the sands of North Africa.
In 2017, when a diplomatic rift erupted between Qatar and Saudi Arabia backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt, there were fears in Doha that UAE mercenaries would attempt a land invasion and overthrow Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. It didn’t happen, but U.S. forces were so concerned that they launched a drone to monitor the border area. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Turkey Begins Resettling Refugees in Northeastern Syria
Lara Seligman
Foreign Policy, Dec. 9, 2019
Turkey has begun shuttling Syrian refugees across the border into northeastern Syria despite dangerous security conditions in the border towns—the first sign Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is moving forward with his plan to resettle some 3 million Syrians living in Turkey into 20 miles of formerly Kurdish-held territory.
Local media reports and information provided to Foreign Policy by the northeastern Syria-based Rojava Information Center show that small numbers of Syrian refugees are now trickling across the border into northeastern Syria just two months after Erdogan and his proxy forces invaded the region. The violent military operation has killed hundreds of Kurdish fighters and civilians and displaced 200,000 people.
While the onslaught has largely halted since Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an October cease-fire agreement, residents of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, the Syrian towns that mark the western and eastern borders of Turkish-occupied territory, live in daily fear of assault, terrorism, and looting. The security conditions on the ground raise concerns about the safety of those who return and call into question whether some of these civilians are being forcibly resettled.
Continued reports of atrocities by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army that now controls the area also raise fears that Turkish proxies are committing a form of ethnic cleansing by relocating people of Arab descent into the region while preventing the Kurdish population from returning. Information provided to Foreign Policy indicates that the people now being resettled in the region are largely the families of Turkish-backed fighters who are originally from elsewhere in Syria and are primarily Arab and Turkmen.
Experts and U.S. officials worry that resettling large numbers of refugees who are not originally from northeastern Syria will upset the delicate ethnic balance of the region. Before the Turkish incursion, the area between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain was previously controlled by the Syrian Kurds, and the population was primarily Kurdish and Arab.
“Turkey’s willingness to take so many refugees from Syria and to try and allow them to stay in Turkey and to support them was admirable,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in an interview with a handful of reporters at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California. “But now for Turkey to say they want to try to relocate 2 to 3 million refugees … we should try to do everything we can in the United States to keep that from happening because of the humanitarian concerns, because of the ongoing conflict in the region.”
The first group of roughly 70 Syrian refugees crossed the border from Turkey into Ras al-Ain on Nov. 22, according to Turkish media reports. Two days later, on Nov. 24, three convoys carrying 600 families were transported from Turkey to Tal Abyad, according to information provided to Foreign Policy by the Rojava Information Center. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Turkey’s Burgeoning Nuclear Ambitions Raise Concerns
Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post, Nov. 29, 2019
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, in an address on September 4 this year to his ruling Justice and Development Party’s governing body, spoke openly of his country’s nuclear ambitions. “Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. I, however, am not supposed to have missiles with nuclear warheads. This, I cannot accept,” the Turkish leader said. “And right next to us, there is Israel, right? With everything [it has], it is frightening [other countries].”
Turkey already has the major elements for acquiring a nuclear capability – rich uranium deposits, and the TR-1 and TR-2 Research Reactors maintained by the Turkish Atomic Energy Authority.
The greatest challenge in acquiring a nuclear weapons capacity is obtaining fuel. A civilian nuclear power program, as in the Iranian case, can often serve as a ruse for making that fuel and building a clandestine nuclear arsenal. Russia’s Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation recently won a $20 billion contract to build four civilian nuclear reactors in Turkey. Turkey is currently building its first major reactor to generate electricity with Russian help. The Russian Rosatom company in September won a $20 billion contract to build four civilian nuclear reactors in Akkuyu, on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.
Turkey, meanwhile, has over the decades shown great interest in learning the formidable skills needed to purify uranium as well as to turn it into plutonium, the two main fuels needed. Ankara’s strong and burgeoning strategic ties to Pakistan are causing international concern regarding the possibility of a transfer of nuclear weapons knowledge between the two countries. Turkey already has the will and the raw materials. This knowledge is the factor it currently lacks.
In the 2000s, Turkey was a covert industrial hub for the nuclear black market of rogue Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. Khan’s network offered buyers a menu of both technical expertise and the materials to make a bomb. The electronics parts of the centrifuges, the most important items in this covert trade, were from Turkey, according to a recent report in The New York Times.
Centrifuges, whose name has become familiar to the broader public because of the Iranian nuclear effort, spin at supersonic speeds to purify uranium. Their output, depending on the level of enrichment, can fuel reactors or nuclear weapons.
According to “Nuclear Black Markets,” a report on the Khan network by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, companies in Turkey aided the covert effort by importing materials from Europe, making centrifuge parts and shipping finished products to customers – Iran, Libya and North Korea.
Turkey assisted the Khan nuclear proliferation network.
A riddle to this day is whether the Khan network had a fourth customer. A former German defense official quoted in The New York Times on October 24 this year noted that Turkey could possess “a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin.”
The idea that Ankara could be the fourth customer “does not appear far-fetched,” he added. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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