William F. Wechsler
The Atlantic Council, June 22, 2025
“The regime is in a fundamentally weak position and should leap at this last opportunity to save itself, as this is clearly Trump’s preferred outcome.”
Just over one week ago, when Israel began its campaign of strikes on Iran, I argued that “Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon or to continue to blackmail the world with its capacity to break out and acquire such weapons.” I then added that “it would be more effective, both militarily and diplomatically, for the United States rather than Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear program.” And I ended by saying, “At times like these there is no substitute for Washington exercising decisive leadership, rather than waiting to be at the mercy of decisions made by others.” Trump has now clearly made this decision.
Tactically, there is no reason to doubt what Trump stated on Saturday night—that the strikes were a “spectacular success.” Strategically, while the risks are high and the final outcomes are far from certain, I believe Trump made the right call.
The regime is in a fundamentally weak position and should leap at this last opportunity to save itself.
The exact nature of those risks and the potential for those outcomes now depend on decisions to be made in Tehran. The strategic choices for Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are clear. One option is for him to “drink from a poisoned chalice,” as his predecessor did to end the Iran-Iraq war, and negotiate directly and immediately with Trump to end the conflict. That would require, at minimum, an Iranian agreement to forever forgo any domestic enrichment, much less the pursuit of nuclear weapons. It’s possible that this agreement may also include commitments to restrict other external Iranian malign behaviors, though such commitments will be difficult to effectively enforce for years to come. In return, Iran would require Trump to give Israel a firm and public red light against any further strikes on Iran. ….SOURCE