CIJR | Canadian Institute for Jewish Research
L'institut Canadien de Recherches sur le Judaisme

Analysis

Political, Social and Diplomatic Possibilities Within Reach for Syria and Lebanon

Cartoon of Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas, with Iran as puppetmaster.- Wikipedia
Cartoon of Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas, with Iran as puppetmaster.- Wikipedia

 

Dr. Eric R. Mandel

JNS, May 31, 2025

“Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Khalil Aoun, is saying many of the right things, but he has also acknowledged that elements of Hezbollah may need to be incorporated  into the LAF.”

One year ago, the genocidal dictator of Syria was in power, propped up by his Iranian patron with the help of Hezbollah, a Shi’ite jihadist proxy. At the same time, in Lebanon, Hezbollah held sway and was under the direct control of Iran. Lebanon was a nation in traumatic distress from long-time civil wars as Hezbollah intimidated Christian, Sunni and Druze leaders, flexing their muscle as the strongest military in Lebanon, with the government’s Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) unwilling or unable to confront them.

What a difference a year makes. In rapid-fire succession, beginning in August 2024, the Israeli Air Force pre-emptively struck and destroyed Hezbollah’s vast missile-launching network. In September, Israel decapitated the senior Hezbollah leadership, including its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, disrupting its command-and-control structure. This was in conjunction with a James Bond-style intelligence operation, as Israel had penetrated their walkie-talkie and pager devices, further degrading the terrorist network.

A targeted ground operation in Southern Lebanon followed in October. Hezbollah and its overlord—the Islamic Republic of Iran—were devastated, agreeing to a ceasefire and claiming that the terror group would abide by the 2006 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, disarming and withdrawing from Southern Lebanon.

Suddenly, a generational opportunity presented itself, holding out the possibility that Lebanon could come out from the shadow of Iran and Hezbollah. A generation ago, Lebanon expelled Syria and that neighbor’s dominance over the state, only to experience the Syrian assassination of its president, Rafiq Hariri, sending the nation back down the rabbit hole of civil chaos and impotent government. ...SOURCE

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