Jerome Drevon
Foreign Affairs, Apr. 11, 2025
“,,, it does not look as if Syria is about to once again become a one-state autocracy, even if that were an outcome that Shara secretly wanted. What is emerging under Shara is a government that has elements of both authoritarian rule and more federated, decentralized organization.”
In late March, Ahmad al-Shara, Syria’s new leader, introduced a caretaker government that would supervise the country’s transition from five decades of dictatorial rule. He gave some cabinet positions to figures outside his Islamist milieu, including naming a Christian woman minister of social affairs, a Kurdish official minister of education, a Druze minister for agriculture, and an Alawite minister for transport. Those appointments reflect the pressure Shara is under to demonstrate to Arab and Western governments—and to the Syrian people—that he can build an inclusive government that represents the country’s religious and ethnic minorities. It is a challenge made all the harder by an eruption of bloodshed in March in which fighters affiliated with Shara’s government (but not under its direction) targeted minority Alawites in the west of the country, killing hundreds.
Ever since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Shara’s rebel group, swept down from northwest Syria in December 2024 and helped topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, outside powers have wondered whether an Islamist such as Shara can govern such a large and diverse country. With Turkish backing, HTS operated in northwestern Idlib Province through much of the Syrian civil war and managed to extend its sway over the territory. But it’s unclear if what worked in Idlib will work in Syria writ large. Doubts also hang over the sincerity of Shara’s professed ideological moderation. The group began as zealous jihadis allied with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). But during the 2010s, HTS split from both al-Qaeda and ISIS, making it clear that its struggle was local and particular to Syria. By 2020, HTS was fighting pitched battles against al-Qaeda-aligned forces and ISIS in Idlib. After ousting Assad, Shara reached out to Arab and Western governments, assiduously presenting himself as a moderate who would protect the country’s religious and ethnic minorities.
For now, Shara holds the cards in Damascus. The temporary constitution stipulates that the interim government will be in place for five years before it stages presidential elections, which means he will be in power for the foreseeable future. The most powerful ministries remain in the hands of Shara’s allies, and he sits atop the executive. The temporary constitution, declared in March, recognizes a bill of rights, including freedom of belief and opinion and equality before the law. But it grants Shara tremendous latitude. He will fill the constitutional court and appoint one-third of parliamentary seats, while the remaining parliamentary seats will be selected by a high committee—made up of members appointed by him. At any time, he can declare a state of emergency and remove the weak institutional checks on his rule. Many Western officials are worried about the possibility of a return to a one-party state—much like that of the Assad regime. Many Syrians perceive Shara, correctly, as a radical pragmatist, willing to make concessions and abandon problematic commitments and alliances as long as such decisions accord with his relentless pursuit of power. …SOURCE