Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
JISS, Dec. 16, 2024
“In Gaza, the most important is to obtain the release of the hostages by force or agreement. In parallel, the IDF needs to turn the entire Gaza Strip into an area that it operates in as it does in Area A territories in the West Bank – this even though it is not yet clear who will take charge of civil affairs in Gaza.”
After over a year of war, it is important that we remember that the war did not break out because Israel wanted it. The war is Israel’s response to Hamas’ barbaric assault on civilian settlements on October 7, 2023, and it was Hezbollah that opened fire on northern Israel the day after the attack.
The outbreak of war was rooted in Iran’s ambitions and the measures it had taken to prepare for the realization of its dream: Israel’s collapse and destruction. To this end, Iran conceived and implemented the “Ring of Fire” around Israel, which included building up Hamas’ military capability in Gaza and Hezbollah’s even more extensive capabilities in Lebanon.
The strategy envisioned a coordinated campaign from all fronts conducted by terror movements built with Iranian support with the aim of destroying Israel. At the same time, Iran sought to remain behind the scenes, 1,500 kilometers away from Israel, avoiding direct implication in the conflict.
However, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on October 16, 2024, did not wait for the full implementation of the Iranian plan. He started the war without coordinating with other elements in the “Ring of Fire”. His unilateral action may have been influenced by several factors: the advancing normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel; a strong sense of religious duty; fears that continued economic progress in Gaza would interfere with his future plans; or perhaps he might just have felt strong and well-prepared, while Israel appeared weak with its army torn apart by internal strife. The publication of a timeline for Israel’s laser defense system to become operational might also accelerated have Sinwar’s actions. It is plausible that a combination of these factors influenced his decision-making; we will never know for sure. …SOURCE