Andrew Fox
Substack, Jan. 15, 2025
“The first thing to note about this deal is that it completely validates Hamas’s strategy of taking hostages. Without the hostages, this war would have been over months ago, with a convincing IDF victory. “
World media reporting is that a ceasefire deal in Gaza is closer than ever before. Of course, media reporting over this conflict has not been reliable, but let us be generous and assume that, in this instance, it is.
The headline issue is that, all going to plan, a terrible war will be over, innocent civilians on both sides can start to rebuild their lives, and the hostages will be free. These are objectively Good Things. On a human, compassionate level we should all be delighted.
However, it is my lot in life that compassionate humanity and dispassionate military and strategic analysis are not happy bedfellows, and sometimes one must divorce the two. For the remainder of this article, therefore, I will evaluate the ceasefire deal, as reported, in terms of strategic gain and strategic loss for both sides.
First, the details of the deal. It looks broadly similar to July’s failed deal, which, interestingly enough, the Israeli Kahanist right yesterday boasted about having torpedoed. Rough details appear to be:
- Stage 1 is a 42-day temporary ceasefire. 33 Israeli civilian hostages, some alive, some dead, will be released in stages. IDF divisions will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza. This reportedly includes pauses in IDF reconnaissance flights. In exchange, Israel will release a number of Palestinian criminals from Israeli jails. At the same time, humanitarian aid will enter the Gaza Strip in increasing amounts. Concurrently, negotiations for Stage 2 will continue.
- Stage 2 will see another 42-day period where all IDF hostages will be exchanged for more Palestinian criminals. At the same time, the IDF will completely withdraw from Gaza, including the Netzarim and Philadelphi Corridors. The total number of prisoners released in exchange for 94 hostages, some dead, is reported to be 1,000. 190 of these are reported to be serving sentences of 15 years or more.
- Stage 3 will see a dead body exchange, a permanent ceasefire, and the reconstruction of Gaza will commence. This reportedly comes with the reopening of crossings, and allowing the free movement of people and goods.
Let us examine this deal from both sides. ….SOURCE