Dr. Eric R. Mandel
Jerusalem Post, Dec. 8, 2024
“Russia will do all it can to preserve its Hmeimim air base in Latakia and its Tartus naval port on the Mediterranean. The Iran alliance is a casualty for the time being. However, Russia will still work with Iran as part of the axis of resistance, buying drones and missiles for its war in Ukraine, adding to the Supreme Leader’s coffers.”
Two weeks ago, the dormant 13-year-old Syrian civil war was barely on the radar of American and Israeli political, defense, and security leaders, with everyone focused on Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza. The lesson is that those who think they know what is coming next in Syria and the region are fooling themselves.
After the Arab Winter in 2011, when Egyptian President Mubarak was toppled, few saw the rapid rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, which led to the election of the anti-American Islamist President Morsi. His short tenure ended in a coup by military strongman al-Sisi, who is still the authoritarian President of Egypt.
In retrospect, the events in the region over the past thirteen years seem to make sense, but they certainly didn’t at the time. Today’s political leaders must force themselves to remember how precarious the situation was at the time and how little insight our defense, security, and intelligence analysts had as the events transpired in real-time.
Today, Iran is on the defensive, but as a cornered rat, it is more dangerous than ever. With attention grabbed by the events unfolding in Syria, one might presume that Iran has suffered a major strategic defeat and is in no position to cause trouble, as its primary proxy in Lebanon is isolated, and Syria is no longer under its thumb.… [To read the full article, click here]
