Sinan Ciddi
Washington Examiner, Nov. 16, 2024
“Erdogan’s championing of Hamas is entrenched. Turkey is the only country inside the NATO alliance and, certainly, the only U.S. ally that openly embraces Hamas as a group of “resistance fighters.””
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels he has reason to be optimistic. He was bracing for the election of Vice President Kamala Harris. In his estimation, that would have been a continuity of U.S. policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s length. As far as Erdogan is concerned, the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House means a renewed opportunity to gloss over a myriad of that beleaguer the two NATO allies’ bilateral relationship.
That could certainly be true. Erdogan and Trump may stand a greater chance of hammering out deals. Still, Washington must recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit in its expectations.
Moreover, Erdogan may have to temper positive expectations of dealing with the incoming Trump administration. It was Trump who imposed sanctions on Turkey and kicked it out of the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Trump did so in response to Ankara’s stubborn insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 missiles. This cost Turkey the ability to acquire a vital fifth-generation strategic weapons capability. Since 2019, Turkey has been too afraid to activate and deploy the S-400 missiles, fearing further U.S. sanctions. It is also terrified of divesting of them, worried about facing punitive measures from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ankara has also struggled to acquire new fighter jets to offset the loss of the F-35.
In effect, Erdogan cornered his country into an avoidable position of not having a modernized air force and an active air defense system. Despite such woes, Erdogan has done nothing to reverse course and address U.S. concerns over the S-400s. Turkey now faces continued and possibly new U.S. tariffs on its exports. Today, however, the Turkish economy is in a far weaker position. … [To read the full article, click here]