Yoni Ben Menachem
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, Sept. 29, 2024
“Hassan Nasrallah failed to grasp that Israel is fighting for its survival in the region, and its citizens have no intention of leaving.”
Since Hassan Nasrallah opened his war against Israel on October 8, he made a series of strategic miscalculations that significantly weakened Hizbullah and harmed the people of Lebanon. His reputation as a wise and effective leader was severely tarnished in Lebanon and across the Arab world, and eroded his credibility, leaving him viewed as a failure.
Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hizbullah, had long boasted of his deep understanding of Israeli society, its political landscape, and media. However, since his war began on October 8, 2023, he committed several strategic blunders, especially in his assessment of Israel’s capabilities and responses.
Here are some of his most critical mistakes:
Failure to Act on October 7
Nasrallah’s first major error occurred on the war’s first day, October 7, 2023. He failed to order the “Radwan” forces, stationed on the Israeli border, to invade northern Israel and seize the Galilee region. This could have occurred simultaneously with Hamas’s attack on settlements near the Gaza border. These forces had been training for years for such an operation and were combat-ready, but the order never came.
This missed opportunity could have allowed Hizbullah to score a significant victory over Israel. At the time, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) presence on the Lebanon border was thin, and Hizbullah could have relatively easily occupied parts of the Galilee and captured Israeli settlements and military bases.
Sources suggest that Nasrallah was not informed by Yahya Sinwar of the exact timing of Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. While he was aware of Hamas’ broader intentions, the lack of precise information left him unprepared.
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