Camille Lons
European Council on Foreign Relations, Nov. 3, 2023
“The current global polarisation around the Israel-Palestine issue plays into Chinese and Russian narratives of a division between the West and the global south. Engaging with China on the current crisis would help defuse this false dichotomy on which Beijing is capitalising.”
The Israel-Hamas war could be China’s first major diplomatic challenge in the Middle East in recent history. Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ten years ago, China’s influence in the region has rapidly increased, culminating last March with the Beijing-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. But over the years, China has carefully remained out of the region’s geopolitical complexities, maintaining balanced and friendly relations with all main powers, including Iran, Israel, and the Arab states. Israel especially has become one of China’s key strategic partners in the region, and a source of advanced technologies, critical for China’s tech race with the United States.
The Israel-Hamas war is however reviving old regional fractures, making it difficult for Beijing to maintain its balancing act. Despite having built a solid relationship with Israel since the 1990s, China’s history as a leader of the non-aligned world has always made it a strong supporter of the Palestinian cause. China does not officially designate Hezbollah or Hamas as terrorist organisations. In the past, it consistently condemned Israel for its violations of international law and called repeatedly for a two-state solution within the 1967 borders. However, China’s support of the Palestinians remained mainly rhetorical and did not interfere with its flourishing commercial ties with Israel.
This time, China’s position on the horrific attacks of 7 October risks significantly damaging its relationship with Israel. After nearly two weeks of silence, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a rather bland statement, calling for a ceasefire and stated that the establishment of “an independent state of Palestine” through a two-state solution was the “fundamental way out” of the conflict. He refrained however from explicitly condemning Hamas or calling it a terrorist organisation.
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