J.E. Dyer
The Optimistic Conservative, Feb. 24, 2022
“But it’s clear he expects no meaningful pushback from the U.S. this time. He isn’t trying to game expectations at this point; he’s just on the move, and is probably doing even more than necessary to achieve his goal, and thus make a point.”
This will be rough and ready, fast and furious, and who knows what else. Readers will be aware that Putin has just invaded Ukraine. I include a few interesting tweets below, but for me the significant point is that we can now judge better what Putin’s intentions are.
We’ve always been able to assess with certainty that he wants to subjugate Ukraine. The question was really what the timeline would be, and how much he was willing to breach the shaky semblance of order we still had left.
I wasn’t unprepared to see him move in something of a blitzkrieg style, but he’s being more emphatic and even “in your face” than I expected. He’s apparently ready for a full, no-holds-barred breach, and will be counting on no residual conditions of stability to simplify his campaign.
For many years Putin has often spoken out angrily on the international stage, but acted with a measure of restraint. That can be attributed to the potential for blowback and countermoves. But it’s clear he expects no meaningful pushback from the U.S. this time. He isn’t trying to game expectations at this point; he’s just on the move, and is probably doing even more than necessary to achieve his goal, and thus make a point. This has a vindictive feel to it, like payback for his long-burning resentment over Kosovo and other grievances he’s been nursing.
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