Dennis Ross and David Makovsky
Foreign Affairs, Feb. 3, 2025
“Netanyahu, of course, cares more about staying prime minister than he does about pleasing Trump. But there is one issue on which Netanyahu may be willing to risk his government and face an election: Iran and its nuclear program.”
Donald Trump begins his presidency with ambitions of being a peacemaker. He laid out this vision in his inaugural address, declaring that his administration “will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars we end, and perhaps most importantly, by the wars we never get into.” Later that day, he basked in the success of the hostage cease-fire deal in Gaza, including by bringing the families of Israeli hostages to the inaugural parade. “We’re getting a lot of people out in a short period of time,” he proclaimed.
There is no doubt that Trump helped secure the cease-fire deal. But to be a peacemaker who transforms the Middle East, he has more work to do. The main issues he confronts are Gaza and Iran. In Gaza, Israel and Hamas have different views of what is required to achieve the second phase of the deal, which would save the remaining hostages and produce a permanent cease-fire. Iran, meanwhile, is accelerating its nuclear program—with its “foot on the gas pedal” according to Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran thus continues to existentially threaten Israel. Both issues are likely to dominate upcoming talks between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.
Trump can—and may have to—address each problem separately. Both are serious in their own right, and Iran’s nuclear program is one of the biggest threats to global security. Should Iran go nuclear, Saudi Arabia will likely pursue a bomb, as well, adding even more danger to what is already one of the world’s most volatile regions. But the easiest way to handle Gaza and Iran might just be to address them together. Netanyahu is hesitant to move toward a permanent cease-fire, in part because he fears it will cause his government to collapse and trigger early elections. But for the prime minister, there is no issue more important than stopping Iran from going nuclear. It has been the central purpose of his long political career. In Knesset remarks years ago, for example, Netanyahu declared that halting the Iranian nuclear program was the reason he gets up in the morning. The more Trump can show he is prepared to work with Israel on Iran, the easier it will be for Netanyahu to make difficult decisions on Gaza.
That hardly means Trump has to rush into using military force. He has indicated that he is willing to make a deal with Tehran, and he repeatedly promised on the campaign trail that he would pursue a maximum-pressure campaign to halt the Iranian nuclear program. He will likely try to use economic leverage to achieve an agreement. But it does mean that he should make it clear to Netanyahu and Tehran that he will support Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure should diplomacy fail. By agreeing to support Israeli strikes, Trump will increase the odds that U.S. diplomacy with Iran will work, as Iranian leaders will understand the harsh consequence of failure. ...SOURCE